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   General

  • The analysis:
    The odds analysis is based on sophisticated proprietary algorithms that analytically find the exact probabilities for each team to end up in each place in the group, in regards to the games that were already played and those that are left to be played.
    The analysis does not take into account any likelihood of certain “stronger” teams on paper to beat “weaker” teams on paper, or for home teams to do better than away teams.
    Below are a few terms and definitions, followed by an example that demonstrates how they are all tied together.


  • List of games:
    The list of games for each team is presented on the top right side of the group’s main page. The list of games of each team are also presented when clicking on the team’s name in the group table either in the group’s main page or in the main tournament’s page.


  • Odds to finish in a certain place:
    The exact odds of a certain team to finish in a certain place is described by a small blue bar graph in the group’s table. The tooltip value on each of the blue bars present the exact chance of the team to finish in that place. A “!” indication on a bar, means that the team is certain to finish in that place in the group.


  • Verbal conclusions:
    The odds conclusions are also verbally described for convenience, under the group table.


  • Tie breaker:
    In each group the teams’ places are determined by a descending order of the number of points they have (marked PTS). When the number of points of two or more teams is the same, there is a sequence of additional parameters that determine which teams should be placed before which other teams. For each tournament the list of parameters is different. We relate to all of the parameters in each of our analysis.
    To see the exact list of parameters, please see the specific tournament’s detailed explanations below.
    There are very rare occurrences where two or more teams are tied in respect to all of the parameters. In this case we would present this in the table as place #1-T (tied for first place), #2-T (tied for second place) and #3-t (tied for third place).
    There would be no #4-T as if the two last teams are tied they would be marked as #3-T rather than #4-T.


  • News:
    After each game is played, the odds of the teams to finish in the various places in the group changes. The news section presents new conclusions about whether specific teams no longer can or are certain, to finish in specific places in the group. The news would only relate to changes in the conclusions from the last game played till the current game just played.


  • Next game analysis:
    The next game analysis runs What-If scenarios regarding the next game of each team.
    If a certain team wins, ties or loses, it might seal the fate of one or more teams to finish in a certain place in the group.
    This analysis explores all of these scenarios, including goals scored and determines their influences on the final places of the teams.


  • Best & worst scenario:
    The best & worst scenario of each team is not dependent only on the scores in the games it participates in.
    It may not be enough if the team wins all of the games left to play, because the other teams can not all lose all of the points in all of their games...
    We present the best & worst scenario for each team in each group in regards to all of the games left to play. The best/worst only relates to the place the team will finish in the group after all of the games were played.
    When there are less than 2 games to play, we would present actual results with specific scores for each scenario.


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       Example

  • The situation:
    Let's say we have a hypothetical situation where the following four teams were scheduled to a certain group:
    Manchester United, AC Milan, Bayern and Real Madrid (I'm sure many people would want such a dream group...).


  • Two games left for each team:
    In the current situation in the group, each team played four games and has two more games to play. The schedule of the games (and the results so far) are presented on the top right side of the group page. We can see an example of such a table on the right:

    Below this table we can see the current situation in the group table. We can see that Manchester United is leading the table with 8 points, AC Milan is 2nd, Bayern is 3rd and Real Madrid is currently 4th (Please no offence to any Real Madrid supporters – this is just and example…).
    On the right side of the table we can see the official odds of each team to finish in places 1-4 in the group. We can see that Manchester United ensured that it will finish in one of the first 3 places (the 4th place has a red X on it to indicate that it is no longer possible for this team).
    The chances of Manchester to finish in the first place are the highest in the group: 82.7% (the exact value is presented in the tooltip when hovering over the bar graph). We can see that currently all of the 4 teams can finish in the 1st place, but of course their chances are quite different.


    • If we click on any of the teams, a list of all of its scheduled games and results would be presented below it: For example, these are the games that AC Milan played and still has to play:




  • Conclusions:
    If we would look below the table we can see the updated conclusions about the chances of each team in plain text:




  • Next game analysis - Manchester United - Bayern:

    Let's examine the What-If scenarios of one of the next games: Manchester United - Bayern:




  • Best & worst scenario - Manchester united:
    Each team has a best & worst scenario in respect to the place it can finish in the group after all of the games were played.
    Let's examine the scenarios of Manchester United:



    • In its best scenario, Manchester United can finish in the first place even if it draws and loses its next two games. This is the most “modest” best scenario for this team that would still allow it to finish first in the group.
    We present the most “modest” scenario (instead of winning all left games 10:0), as we want to emphasize the ease or difficulty of the team to finish in a certain place.

    In its worst but “modest” scenario, Manchester will end up with 9 points in the 3rd place. It will have the same number of points as Bayern and AC Milan.
    Note that it this scenario it will lose 0:2 to Bayern.
    If it would lose only 0:1, the goal difference in the games played between these three teams would be the following:
    Manchester United: 7-7 , AC Milan: 8-8 and Bayern: 10-10.
    In such case Manchester would finish in the first place, because the goal difference of the three teams is 0, but the total away goals scored in the games among them is: Manchester United: 7, AC Milan: 6 and Bayern: 3.
    If Manchester loses 0:2, the goal difference among the teams would be:
    Manchester United: 7-8 , AC Milan: 8-8 and Bayern: 11-10.
    With this goal difference, Manchester United would indeed finish 3rd.

  • One game left for each team:
    Now Let's assume that in week 5, the results are:
    Real Madrid – AC Milan : 1-1
    Manchester United – Bayern : 3-1

    For these results we would get the following updated group table:


    • We can see that the odds are updated and many new conclusions can be made:
    - Manchester United will finish in the 1st place, no matter what happens in the last week of play.
    - AC Milan will not finish in the 1st or 4th places, i.e. it will finish in the 2nd or 3rd place.
    - Real Madrid will not finish in the 1st place.
    - Bayern will not finish in the 1st or 2nd places.


  • News:
    These exact news items, that are known only after these games were played, would also be presented in the tournament's main page in the news ticker on the upper part of the page:




  • Best & worst scenario - Bayern:
    Let's evaluate the best & worst scenario of Bayern, when there is only one game left for each team:


    • Let’s look closely on the best scenario. We see that Bayern will finish 3rd with 6 points and AC Milan will finish 2nd with 7 points.
    We also see that in this scenario, AC Milan draws the last game and collects a precious point. If it would lose instead, it will also have 6 points.
    Can’t Bayern finish 2nd in such case if it beats Real Madrid by a high score, or if AC Milan loses to Manchester United by a big score?!
    The answer is NO.
    In case Bayern and AC Milan finish with the same number of points, the goal difference in the games between them will determine who will be 2nd and who will be 3rd. These teams already played both matches, which ended in scores: 3:4 and 2:2.
    The aggregated goal difference between these teams are 6:5 in favor of AC Milan, therefore, it would be 2nd and Bayern will be 3rd, and the goal differences in the last games have no influence.
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       Champions League

  • Stages & schedule:
    The Champions League has two main stages: Group stage and Final stage.

    - Group stage:
    The Champions League group stage is played from 16/09/2008 till 10/12/2008.
    In this stage there are 8 groups (A-H) of 4 teams, that play each other twice (home and away).
    Each team plays 6 games in total. In each group there are a total of 12 games.
    The top two teams from each group qualify to the Final stage (the third team joins the UEFA Cup tournament).

    - Final stage:
    The Champions League Final stage is played from 24/02/2009 till 27/05/2009.
    In this stage there are 16 teams and 3 "loser out" rounds till the Finals game (on 27/05/2009).
    In each "loser out" round 2 teams play each other twice (home and away).
    The aggregated winner in these two matches, advances to the next round (and the loser as the name suggests, is out).


  • Tie-breaking criteria:
    If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings:

    a) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
    b) superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
    c) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;
    d) superior goal difference from all group matches played;
    e) higher number of goals scored;
    f) higher number of coefficient points accumulated by the club in question, as well as its association, over the previous five seasons.

    source: http://www.uefa.com

    We take all of the above criteria in our ranking analysis.
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       UEFA Cup

  • Stages & schedule:

    The UEFA Cup has two main stages: Group stage and Final stage.

    - Group stage:
    The UEFA Cup group stage is played from 23/10/2008 till 18/12/2008.
    In this stage there are 8 groups (A-H) of 5 teams, where each team play two home and two away games.
    In each group there are a total of 10 games.
    The top three teams from each group qualify to the Final stage (where they are joined by the teams that finished in the third place in the Champions League groups).

    - Final stage:
    The UEFA Cup Final stage is played from 18/2/2009 till 20/5/2009.
    In this stage there are 32 teams and 4 "loser out" rounds till the Finals game (on 20/5/2009).
    In each "loser out" round 2 teams play each other twice (home and away).
    The aggregated winner in these two matches, advances to the next round (and the loser as the name suggests, is out).


  • Tie-breaking criteria:
    If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of all the group matches, the following criteria will be applied to determine the rankings:

    a) superior goal difference from all group matches played;
    b) higher number of goals scored;
    c) higher number of goals scored away;
    d) higher number of wins;
    e) higher number of away wins;
    f) higher number of coefficient points accumulated by the club in question, as well as its association, over the previous five seasons.

    source: http://www.uefa.com

    We take all of the above criteria in our ranking analysis.
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       Euroleague

  • Stages & schedule:

    The Euroleague has three main stages: Group stage 1, Group stage 2 and Final stage.

    - Group stage 1:
    The Euroleague group stage 1 is played from 20/10/2008 till 15/1/2009.
    In this stage there are 4 groups (A-D) of 6 teams, that play each other twice (home and away).
    Each team plays 10 games in total. In each group there are a total of 30 games.
    The top four teams from each group qualify to Group stage 2.

    - Group stage 2:
    The Euroleague group stage 2 is played from 29/1/2009 till 13/3/2009.
    In this stage there are 4 groups (E-H) of 4 teams, that play each other twice (home and away).
    Each team plays 6 games in total. In each group there are a total of 12 games.
    The top two teams from each group qualify to the Final stage.

    - Final stage:
    The Euroleague Final stage is played from 24/3/2009 till 3/5/2009.
    In this stage there are 16 teams and 3 "loser out" rounds till the Finals game (on 3/5/2009).
    In each "loser out" round 2 teams play each other twice (home and away).
    The last "loser out" round is called the Final Four and there only one game is played between the teams rather than two (home and away) games.
    The aggregated winner in these two matches, advances to the next round (and the loser as the name suggests, is out).


  • Tie-breaking criteria:
    If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of all the group matches, the following criteria will be applied to determine the rankings:

    a) best record in head-to-head games between all tied teams;
    b) higher cumulative score difference in head-to-head games between all tied teams;
    c) higher cumulative score difference from all group matches played;
    d) higher total of points scored from all group matches played;
    e) higher sum of quotients of points in favor and points against of each match played.

    source: http://www.euroleague.net

    We take all of the above criteria in our ranking analysis.
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       ULEB Cup

  • Stages & schedule:

    The ULEB Cup (also known as EuroCup) has three main stages: Group stage 1, Group stage 2 and Final stage.

    - Group stage 1:
    The ULEB Cup group stage 1 is played from 25/11/2008 till 13/1/2009.
    In this stage there are 8 groups (A-H) of 4 teams, that play each other twice (home and away).
    Each team plays 6 games in total. In each group there are a total of 12 games.
    The top two teams from each group qualify to Group stage 2.

    - Group stage 2:
    The ULEB Cup group stage 2 is played from 27/1/2009 till 10/3/2009.
    In this stage there are 4 groups (I-L) of 4 teams, that play each other twice (home and away).
    Each team plays 6 games in total. In each group there are a total of 12 games.
    The top two teams from each group qualify to the Final stage.

    - Final stage:
    The ULEB Cup Final stage is played from 9/4/2009 till 12/4/2009.
    In this stage there are 8 teams and 2 "loser out" rounds till the Finals game (on 12/4/2009).
    In each "loser out" round 2 teams play each other once.
    The winner advances to the next round (and the loser as the name suggests, is out).


  • Tie-breaking criteria:
    If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of all the group matches, the following criteria will be applied to determine the rankings:

    a) best record in head-to-head games between all tied teams;
    b) higher cumulative score difference in head-to-head games between all tied teams;
    c) higher cumulative score difference from all group matches played;
    d) higher total of points scored from all group matches played;
    e) higher sum of quotients of points in favor and points against of each match played.

    source: http://www.euroleague.net

    We take all of the above criteria in our ranking analysis.
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